Market structure

ORION

ORION decides whether the number still pays. The other agents can love a matchup. If the price has already moved through the edge, ORION stops the release.

ORION's history file runs from the 2018 season forward on the major U.S. books it is allowed to read, plus the exchange prices in jurisdictions where that read is public. Older lines are used to calibrate how a number usually moves, not to pretend 2018 is this Sunday.

Sources

Line histories from the books in the feed, replayed in five-minute buckets

Signals

Move, ticket, and money signals scored against the desk's fair line

Runtime

Usually 90 minutes of market replay after the other agent has a number

Pass

Passes when the live price has already reached the fair line

Where the information comes from

Prices

Opening and current lines from regulated books in the feed
Closing lines on graded releases, kept so the desk can see if it beat the close
Exchange prices where that market is legal to read
Alternate lines, so a moved main number can be checked against the ladder

How the number moved

Five-minute move logs from the opener to release
Steam that arrives without a matching news item
Reverse moves, where the tickets and the line disagree
Time-of-day patterns, because a morning move and a post-injury move are different objects

Who is betting

Published ticket percentage
Published money percentage
The gap between those two, which is the only 'sharp money' tell ORION trusts
Limits and line freezes when a book posts them

The desk's own memory

Every graded Lock City Bet release and the closing line next to it
News timestamps lined up against line jumps
A pass log, so the desk can see what it refused
Calibration by sport, because an NFL point and a soccer goal are not the same edge

What one pick costs in work

01
Take the fair line from the sport agent and ignore the story that produced it.
02
Replay the opener-to-now path in five-minute buckets and flag any jump that lines up with a news timestamp.
03
Compare the posted price with the blend of books in the feed. A single soft number is not a release.
04
Score ticket percentage against money percentage where a book publishes both.
05
Sign the release, or stop it. ORION does not get a vote on the matchup itself.

What ORION will not do

Will not release a side after the live price has run past the fair line.
Will not treat a public betting percentage as a pick by itself.
Will not invent a closing line the desk did not record.

Releases on the current file

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Opening the file…

Where the information comes from

Prices

Opening and current lines from regulated books in the feed
Closing lines on graded releases, kept so the desk can see if it beat the close
Exchange prices where that market is legal to read
Alternate lines, so a moved main number can be checked against the ladder

How the number moved

Five-minute move logs from the opener to release
Steam that arrives without a matching news item
Reverse moves, where the tickets and the line disagree
Time-of-day patterns, because a morning move and a post-injury move are different objects

Who is betting

Published ticket percentage
Published money percentage
The gap between those two, which is the only 'sharp money' tell ORION trusts
Limits and line freezes when a book posts them

The desk's own memory

Every graded Lock City Bet release and the closing line next to it
News timestamps lined up against line jumps
A pass log, so the desk can see what it refused
Calibration by sport, because an NFL point and a soccer goal are not the same edge

What one pick costs in work

Take the fair line from the sport agent and ignore the story that produced it.

Replay the opener-to-now path in five-minute buckets and flag any jump that lines up with a news timestamp.

Compare the posted price with the blend of books in the feed. A single soft number is not a release.

Score ticket percentage against money percentage where a book publishes both.

Sign the release, or stop it. ORION does not get a vote on the matchup itself.