Basketball and props

LYRA

LYRA prices the possession game and the minutes. A prop is not a hunch about a star. It is a minutes assumption the agent is willing to write down.

LYRA's NBA file runs from the 2016-17 season, with a heavier weight on the current roster's last two seasons. College is used for totals and sides only. LYRA does not publish college player props. The minute data is too thin.

Sources

Lineups, rest, travel, shot profile, referee foul rates, and closing-lineup estimates

Signals

500 to 900 signals on a side, fewer on a prop once minutes are the whole question

Runtime

Two to four hours, longer if a star is on the injury report

Pass

Passes any prop whose minutes can swing by more than four from the base assumption

Where the information comes from

Lineups and minutes

Confirmed inactives and probable tags
On-off net ratings for the usual closing groups
Usage when a specific teammate sits
Minute distributions, not a single predicted number
Foul trouble rates for the players a prop depends on

Style and pace

Pace and transition frequency
Shot profile: rim, midrange, three, and free throws
Offensive rebound rates that create extra possessions
Rest days and the second night of a back-to-back

The trip

Miles since the previous tip
Time-zone changes
Altitude, when the game is in Denver or Salt Lake City
Schedule density over the last seven days

The officials and the market

Referee foul rates and free-throw environment
Closing lineup estimates from the last two weeks of similar spots
Prop-shop prices compared across the feed
A written kill-switch if the minute assumption breaks before tip

What one pick costs in work

01
Confirm who is available, then rebuild pace and usage without the players who are out.
02
Price rest, back-to-backs, altitude, and time zones before the talent gap.
03
Estimate the closing lineup and the foul environment from the assigned referees.
04
For a prop, write the minute band first. If the band is wide, stop.
05
Hand the fair number to ORION. A prop ORION will not sign can still be filed as a Lock City Pick dissent, not quietly upgraded.

What LYRA will not do

Will not publish a college player prop.
Will not release a prop when minutes can swing more than four from the base case.
Will not treat a player's season average as the projection.

Releases on the current file

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Where the information comes from

Lineups and minutes

Confirmed inactives and probable tags
On-off net ratings for the usual closing groups
Usage when a specific teammate sits
Minute distributions, not a single predicted number
Foul trouble rates for the players a prop depends on

Style and pace

Pace and transition frequency
Shot profile: rim, midrange, three, and free throws
Offensive rebound rates that create extra possessions
Rest days and the second night of a back-to-back

The trip

Miles since the previous tip
Time-zone changes
Altitude, when the game is in Denver or Salt Lake City
Schedule density over the last seven days

The officials and the market

Referee foul rates and free-throw environment
Closing lineup estimates from the last two weeks of similar spots
Prop-shop prices compared across the feed
A written kill-switch if the minute assumption breaks before tip

What one pick costs in work

Confirm who is available, then rebuild pace and usage without the players who are out.

Price rest, back-to-backs, altitude, and time zones before the talent gap.

Estimate the closing lineup and the foul environment from the assigned referees.

For a prop, write the minute band first. If the band is wide, stop.

Hand the fair number to ORION. A prop ORION will not sign can still be filed as a Lock City Pick dissent, not quietly upgraded.