Football

VEGA

VEGA prices the game from the snaps, the script, and the weather, then hands ORION a fair line. The posted number is someone else's opinion until that handoff is done.

The NFL file includes regular-season snap charts, play-by-play, and weather back to 2015. College is a shorter, harsher file: VEGA trusts it less, demands a wider edge, and will not pretend a Tuesday night model is a Sunday model.

Sources

Snap charts, personnel groupings, weather hours, rest, travel, and referee crews

Signals

About 400 to 700 scored signals on a typical Sunday release

Runtime

Three to five hours from first injury read to a fair line

Pass

Passes preseason, and passes any game where the quarterback status is still a rumor

Where the information comes from

The players on the field

Injury and participation reports, including the Friday and Saturday updates
Snap counts and personnel groupings, split by down and distance
Quarterback pressure allowed, and pressure created without a blitz
Red-zone and explosive-play rates over a rolling four-week window
Special teams: starting field position, not only the highlight return

How the game is played

Pace and seconds per play
Pass rate over expected on early downs
Fourth-down tendencies by coaching staff and field position
Garbage-time filters, so a blowout does not distort the next number

The week itself

Rest, short weeks, and long trips
Stadium forecast: wind, rain, snow, temperature, and roof status
Referee crew tendencies on penalties that change field position
Divisional familiarity, which VEGA treats as a variance warning, not a magic edge

The simulation

Drive-level simulation of the game script
A separate total model, because a side and a total can disagree
Kickoff-window weather, not the morning reading only
A written note on the assumption most likely to break the pick

What one pick costs in work

01
Read the latest participation report and throw out any number that depends on a player who is out.
02
Build a game script from pace, early-down success, and how often the offense throws when the situation does not demand it.
03
Run the drive simulation with special teams and field position included, not just the skill players.
04
Apply wind, precipitation, and temperature at the stadium, hour by hour, through the expected kickoff window.
05
Write a fair line and a fair total. Hand both to ORION. VEGA does not get to peek at the betting percentages first.

What VEGA will not do

Will not price a preseason game.
Will not release a side while the starting quarterback is unconfirmed.
Will not let a single explosive-play trend overrule the down-to-down file.

Releases on the current file

Loading the file…

Opening the file…

Where the information comes from

The players on the field

Injury and participation reports, including the Friday and Saturday updates
Snap counts and personnel groupings, split by down and distance
Quarterback pressure allowed, and pressure created without a blitz
Red-zone and explosive-play rates over a rolling four-week window
Special teams: starting field position, not only the highlight return

How the game is played

Pace and seconds per play
Pass rate over expected on early downs
Fourth-down tendencies by coaching staff and field position
Garbage-time filters, so a blowout does not distort the next number

The week itself

Rest, short weeks, and long trips
Stadium forecast: wind, rain, snow, temperature, and roof status
Referee crew tendencies on penalties that change field position
Divisional familiarity, which VEGA treats as a variance warning, not a magic edge

The simulation

Drive-level simulation of the game script
A separate total model, because a side and a total can disagree
Kickoff-window weather, not the morning reading only
A written note on the assumption most likely to break the pick

What one pick costs in work

Read the latest participation report and throw out any number that depends on a player who is out.

Build a game script from pace, early-down success, and how often the offense throws when the situation does not demand it.

Run the drive simulation with special teams and field position included, not just the skill players.

Apply wind, precipitation, and temperature at the stadium, hour by hour, through the expected kickoff window.

Write a fair line and a fair total. Hand both to ORION. VEGA does not get to peek at the betting percentages first.