Baseball and environment

CASTOR

CASTOR prices the run environment. The starter, the umpire, the park, and the wind are the pick. The brand name on the jersey is the last thing it reads.

Pitch-level data from 2019 forward, park factors by season, and umpire zone maps from the same window. Postseason samples are kept separate. CASTOR will not copy a July regular-season total into October without saying the sample got smaller.

Sources

Pitch logs, umpire zones, park factors, first-pitch wind, and bullpen workload

Signals

300 to 600 signals once both starters are confirmed

Runtime

Two to three hours after the starter announcement, not before

Pass

Passes if either starter is unconfirmed or the bullpen file is missing

Where the information comes from

The starters

Pitch mix and velocity over the last five outings
Times-through-the-order results
Platoon splits against the handedness in today's lineup
Rest days since the last start
A hard stop if the starter is scratched after the release

The run environment

Park factors by batter handedness
Wind, temperature, and roof status at first pitch
Umpire zone maps and called-strike tendency
Catcher framing, used as a small adjustment, not a headline

The rest of the staff

Bullpen pitches thrown over the last three days
Leverage relievers who are unavailable
Platoon weaknesses in the middle innings
Travel direction and a day-to-night turnaround

October, specifically

A separate postseason prior, because managers pull starters earlier
Shorter hooks written into the simulation
Bullpen usage from the previous series
A wider edge requirement than the regular season

What one pick costs in work

01
Wait for both announced starters. There is no provisional total.
02
Price pitch mix, velocity trend, and platoon splits for the first time through the order.
03
Add the umpire's zone and the park factor for the actual lineup handedness.
04
Read the wind at first pitch and the bullpen's pitches over the last three days.
05
Write a fair total and, if the side also clears, a fair moneyline. ORION still has to sign it.

What CASTOR will not do

Will not price a total before both starters are confirmed.
Will not grade a pass as a moral victory.
Will not use a regular-season park factor without the day's wind.

Releases on the current file

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Where the information comes from

The starters

Pitch mix and velocity over the last five outings
Times-through-the-order results
Platoon splits against the handedness in today's lineup
Rest days since the last start
A hard stop if the starter is scratched after the release

The run environment

Park factors by batter handedness
Wind, temperature, and roof status at first pitch
Umpire zone maps and called-strike tendency
Catcher framing, used as a small adjustment, not a headline

The rest of the staff

Bullpen pitches thrown over the last three days
Leverage relievers who are unavailable
Platoon weaknesses in the middle innings
Travel direction and a day-to-night turnaround

October, specifically

A separate postseason prior, because managers pull starters earlier
Shorter hooks written into the simulation
Bullpen usage from the previous series
A wider edge requirement than the regular season

What one pick costs in work

Wait for both announced starters. There is no provisional total.

Price pitch mix, velocity trend, and platoon splits for the first time through the order.

Add the umpire's zone and the park factor for the actual lineup handedness.

Read the wind at first pitch and the bullpen's pitches over the last three days.

Write a fair total and, if the side also clears, a fair moneyline. ORION still has to sign it.